Four G5 Teams Remain Undefeated After Week Five: Can Any Run The Table?

So many things happened over the weekend in the race to an undefeated season. The list shrunk from eight to four as San Diego State, Toledo, Navy, and Memphis all fell to the wayside. The two AAC programs were no surprise as Navy fell to undefeated Air Force and Memphis lost to Ole Miss on the road. Neither team was projected to win its week five games.

Then you have Toledo and San Diego State. The Rockets traveled cross country to play a tougher than expected BYU program. They left the defense at home and played a game of #MACTION versus the Cougars. In the end, they did not have quite enough firepower and lost.

The Aztecs are another story all together. After losing to South Alabama last season in a huge upset, it would have made perfect sense for them to do what Houston did to UConn and absolutely destroy the inferior squad. Instead, they played catch up all night until USA finally pulled away for a semi blowout win over SDSU. Make no mistake, that is still a bad South Alabama squad that will likely finish mid pack at best in the Sun Belt.

We will start looking more at conference title games and postseason chances in the new few weeks as we start to see where these teams could end up.

We are now down to the final four. Let’s take a look at the four programs and their chances of going undefeated.

#19 Boise State: (4-0)            

The Broncos took care of business in a sloppy game versus Utah State. The difference between Boise State and a majority of the G5 is the fact that they figure out how to win even when they are nowhere near their best. That is the sign of a well coached and talented team. With the win, the Broncos jump to 4-0 on the year and jump to #19 in the AP Top 25 poll.

Boise State took care of their first test versus Utah State, and have a revenge game upcoming versus New Mexico. The Lobos came to Boise and defeated the Broncos in a MWC stunner last season. Brett Rypien and company are huge favorites, but they game has to be played anyway. They cannot afford to blow this game.

The Broncos have a manageable schedule, but still have that Thursday night game versus BYU looming large on the schedule. Here is their remaining schedule.

  • At New Mexico (Friday)
  • Colorado State
  • BYU (Thursday)
  • At Wyoming
  • San Jose State (Friday)
  • At Hawaii
  • UNLV (Friday)
  • At Air Force (Friday)

Chance of going undefeated: 70%.

Air Force: (4-0)

Playing in a rivalry game without their best defensive player for the first half, the Falcons were dominant in a 28-14 win over Navy. The passing game was excellent and the defense shut down Navy, giving up the final score with :10 left in the game. Air Force is for real and will give anyone left on their schedule quite a bit to handle.

This was the biggest test of the season for Air Force before a lighter next four weeks. Even so, an October 15 trip to New Mexico is a game to be very cautious about. Outside of that game, it is a cakewalk to a trip to Army with the Commander-in-Chief trophy on the line. Win and they get the trophy.

Here is a look at the remaining schedule for Air Force.

  • At Wyoming
  • At New Mexico
  • Hawaii
  • At Fresno State (Friday)
  • At Army
  • Colorado State
  • At San Jose State
  • Boise State (Friday)

Chance of going undefeated: 30%.

Western Michigan: (5-0)

Of the undefeated G5 left, none have an easier path to an undefeated season than the Broncos. They have wins over Northwestern, Illinois, Georgia Southern, and Central Michigan. Three of those four wins were by 18 or more points.

The problem for WMU is the fact that the schedule is not very good down the stretch. This week versus Northern Illinois is a trap game that the Broncos cannot overlook. Yes, NIU is 1-4 with a loss to a FCS program on their resume, but they have beaten WMU in each of the last seven meetings. It was 2008 when Western Michigan last won in the series.

Outside of a tricky trip to Akron and a matchup versus a surprising Eastern Michigan, the rest of the schedule is very weak.

  • Northern Illinois
  • At Akron
  • Eastern Michigan
  • At Ball State (Tuesday)
  • At Kent State (Tuesday)
  • Buffalo
  • Toledo (Friday)

Chance of going undefeated: 80%.

#6 Houston: (5-0)

The Cougars did not just get revenge for their only loss in 2015, they ruined UConn. 42-14 does not even do the game justice as Houston did whatever they pleased versus a wildly outmatched Huskies squad.

With the revenge game out-of-the-way, it is all about taking care of business versus teams that they should beat. Some may come closer than others, but there is not a team in the AAC that I see beating Houston this season. So, we are all just wasting time until the battle of the behemoths with Louisville coming to town.

The Cougars have four home games left in the regular season, before facing presumably South Florida in the AAC title game.

  • At Navy
  • Tulsa
  • At SMU
  • UCF
  • Tulane
  • Louisville (Thursday)
  • Memphis (Friday)

Chance of going undefeated: 60%.

Others:

  • None.

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