What We Learned About the MWC In Week 10

San Diego State is officially in the conference championship game

After throttling Hawaii, they possess a three-game lead in the division and hold the tie-breaker over the two teams with any hope of catching them (Hawai’i and UNLV). Thus they have clinched the division. I can’t decide yet if this helps or hurts Donnel Pumphrey’s record chase. Rocky Long has already regularly limited his work late in blowout games, and I don’t know if they’ll have any more blowouts now that the division is locked, or if he’ll play less regardless of the score in order to stay fresh for the conference title game, or what.

Selfishly, I want him to keep playing a bunch to chase that top spot on the list, but I’m sure that Rocky Long has other ideas. Congratulations to the Aztecs, either way.

Who they face will take the entire regular season to decide, barring a massive upset

Wyoming is in the driver’s seat and can simply win out to carry themselves into the title game. That is, of course, no guarantee with a match-ups against SDSU and New Mexico on the horizon; that said, the latter of those two games is more important. The season finale with New Mexico will decide the division even if the Aztecs win.

So here is what we are looking at:

Wyoming plays for the title if: they win out OR they win two of three AND their loss isn’t to New Mexico, unless New Mexico loses to Utah State or Colorado State

New Mexico plays for the title if: they win out AND Boise loses to Hawai’i, UNLV or Air Force

Boise plays for the title if: they win out AND Wyoming loses two of three between UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico. A much less likely scenario could see Boise drop another game and still make the title game if New Mexico loses another game and Wyoming loses out.

TL;DR version: Wyoming holds their own destiny, New Mexico needs losses by Wyoming and Boise, and Boise needs two Wyoming losses.

For those that like to know the official rules, here you go.

Two-team tiebreaker procedure:

  • Head-to-head record between the tied teams
  • Winning percentage of the tied teams within the division
  • Winning percentage against the next-highest placed team in the division, with placing based on the team’s conference
  • record, and proceeding through the division
  • Winning percentage of the tied teams against common conference opponents
  • Higher CFP ranking following the final week of the regular season
  • Overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
  • Coin toss

Three or more-team tiebreaker procedure:

  • Head-to-head record among the tied teams
  • Winning percentage among the tied teams within the division
  • Winning percentage among the tied teams against the next-highest placed team in the division, with placing based on the team’s conference record, and proceeding through the division
  • Winning percentage among the tied teams against common conference opponents
  • Higher CFP ranking following the final week of the regular season

Hawaii has hit a wall… but they should still go bowling

Our lovable Rainbow Warriors were taken to the woodshed this weekend by San Diego State. They made a decision to keep Pumphrey under 200 yards and accomplished that goal. That being said, they gave up 55 points in the blowout loss. For every step forward like a win over Air Force or Nevada, they stub their toe with losses to UNLV and a no-show versus SDSU.

Head coach Nick Rolovich has turned the Warriors into a solid team, but the tolls of the season have already done severe damage to the team. Injuries and normal wear and tear have steered Hawai’i into the dreaded wall. Even with the disappointing result on Saturday, all they have to do is beat Fresno State and UMass to go bowling. If Hawai’i cannot win those two games, they do not deserve any sort of postseason.

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