Forgotten 5’s Bowl Projections

We are deep into the season and currently at the point where bowl projections turn from wild conjecture to actual common sense predictions. As of today, there are 20/21 G5 teams that are bowl eligible, as the AAC leads the way with six (Temple. Tulsa, USF, Navy, Houston, Memphis). We are on the very of nine more teams breaking through this weekend to give the G5 nearly 30 bowl eligible teams with a couple of weeks left in the season.

We have looked at the upcoming G5 bowl games and decided where the Forgotten 5 will spend their postseasons.

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G5 Bowls James TK Hondros Nic Anthony Jeremy Alex
New Mexico (CUSA/MWC) UTSA vs. Colorado State UTSA vs Colorado St UTSA vs UNM UTSA v. NM UTSA vs Colorado St UTSA v. New Mexico USTA vs Colorado St
Las Vegas (MWC/Pac-12) Air Force v. Arizona State Wyoming vs Arizona St BSU vs USC Wyoming v. Stanford Wyoming v Arizona St Wyoming v. Stanford Wyoming vs Arizona St
Cure (AAC/Sun Belt) Army vs. App State Houston vs App St Houston vs App St Houston v. GaSo Houston v App St Houston v. App St Houston vs App St
Camellia (MAC/Sun Belt) Akron v. Arkansas State Akron vs GaSo Akron vs stAte Akron v. Ark St Akron vs GaSo Akron v. GaSo Akron vs GaSo
New Orleans (CUSA/Sun Belt) GaSo v. So. Miss WKU vs A-State La Tech vs Troy La Tech v. Troy Troy v WKU La. Tech v. Troy La. Tech vs Troy
Miami Beach (AAC/MAC) Tulsa v. Miami UCF vs Miami UCF vs Miami UCF v. Miami UCF v Miami UCF v. Miami UCF vs Miami
Boca Raton (AAC/CUSA) Temple v. ODU Temple vs La Tech Temple vs ODU Temple v ODU Temple v ODU Temple v. ODU Temple vs ODU
Potato (MAC/MWC) EMU v. Wyoming EMU vs New Mexico EMU vs AFA EMU v. Boise EMU v New Mexico EMU v. Air Force EMU vs Chair Force
Bahamas (CUSA/MAC) Toledo v. LA Tech ODU vs CMU WKU vs Toledo WKU v. Toledo MTSU v Toledo WKU v. Toledo MTSU vs Toledo
Armed Forces (Navy/Big 12) Navy v. Texas Navy vs Texas Navy vs Texas Navy v. Texas Navy v Texas Navy v. Texas Squids vs Texas
Dollar General (MAC/Sun Belt) Ohio v. Troy Ohio vs Troy Ohio vs App State Ohio v. App St. Ohio v Ark State Ohio v. A-State Ohio vs Ark State
Hawaii (CUSA/MWC) WKU v. Air Force MTSU vs Air Force Wyoming vs MTSU Hawai’i v. So Miss Air Force v So Miss Hawai’i v. Southern Miss Hawai’i vs So Miss
St. Petersburg (ACC/ND/AAC) USF v. Wake Forest USF vs Syracuse USF vs Pitt USF v. Pitt USF v NC State USF v. Wake Forest Army vs. USF
Heart of Dallas (Big Ten/CUSA) MTSU v. Iowa Iowa vs So Miss So Miss vs Iowa MTSU v. Iowa La Tech vs. Iowa MTSU v. Iowa WKU vs Iowa
Birmingham (AAC/SEC) Memphis v. Tennessee Memphis vs Tenn Memphis vs Tenn Memphis v. Tenn Memphis vs Tenn Memphis v. Tenn Memphis vs Tenn
Arizona (Sun Belt/MWC) Idaho vs. Boise Idaho vs Boise St Idaho vs CSU Idaho v. Air Force Idaho v Boise State Idaho v. Boise St Idaho vs Boise State
Military (AAC/ACC) Houston v. Pittsburgh Tulsa vs Pitt Tulsa vs Syracuse Tulsa v. Ga Tech Tulsa v Pitt Tulsa v. Pitt Tulsa vs Pitt
Cotton (At large/At large) WMU v. Wisconsin WMU vs Penn State WMU vs Wisconsin WMU v. Nebraska WMU v Wisconsin WMU v. Wisconsin WMU vs Wisconsin

A few things to consider:

  • Army will likely get a sixth win and become bowl eligible. They do not have any specific bowl tie-ins like Navy, so projecting a bowl for them is a bit more challenging. There is a good likelihood that a bowl outside of the G5 bowls ends up taking Army.
  • Many conference has plans to keep teams out of the same bowl year after year. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn’t. Case in point, Appalachian State faced off versus Ohio in the Camellia Bowl last season and may end up facing Ohio again, in the Dollar General Bowl instead.
  • I will keep it on my projections as long as feasible, but we are unlikely to see a Boise State/Idaho matchup. It would be great for all kinds of reasons to people outside of those programs, but too many factors are in play to keep that game from happening.
  • Very few teams were unanimous, but UTSA, Akron, Temple, Miami, SDSU, EMU, USF, Memphis, Idaho, Tulsa, and Western Michigan were all chosen in every projection. The only full matchups that were the same among everyone were SDSU/BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl, Memphis/Tennessee in the Birmingham Bowl, and Navy/Texas in the Armed Forces Bowl.

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