Get’em While They’re Hot: Week 4 Picks

Takes from last week

They say you learn more from losing than winning, I guess I have nothing to learn from last week.

I went 3-0 ATS, but did not hit the parlay.  I have now gone 3-0 two separate weekends and currently 10-4 on the season going 1-2-1 on parlays.

My assumptions on last weeks games came to fruition.  UAB and NMSU were both underrated.  Kansas is being overrated so far this season, going 0-3 ATS.  I will continue to follow these three teams to see if those patterns continue.

Remember, picks are listed in order of confidence.

 

 

This Weeks Hot Picks

 

Georgia State @ Charlotte (even) Sat. Sept. 23rd 6:00pm ESPN3

Stat GSU FBS Rank
Charlotte FBS Rank
Total Offense 118 119
Total Defense 105 99
First Down Offense 123 93
Red Zone Offense 129 88
Turn Over Margin 129 125
S&P+ 129 120
S&P+ Offense 129 119

I have yet to publish a single spreadsheets with Forgotten5 and I can’t think of a better reason than to show statistically just how bad these two teams are.

I could keep adding rows, but as you can see these two teams are at the bottom of many of the major offensive and defensive categories in FBS football.

Looking at betting trends, Charlotte is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home, while Georgia State looks much more decent going 7-3 ATS during their last 10 road games.

On a positive note, Georgia State is in the top 10 in penalties (in a good way) and top 30 for third down conversions. Converting 3rd downs and not getting dumb penalties, plus doing great ATS on the road is enough for me to take Georgia State in this “Battle of the Bads”.

Georgia State (even)

Hawaii @ Wyoming (-7) Sat. Sept 23rd 9:15pm ESPN2

I’ve made money this season from Hawaii being underrated and Wyoming being overrated.  I believe both of these are true for this match up as these teams battle for the Paniolo Trophy.

Wyoming is 2-8 ATS over the past 10 games as home favorites and 3-7 overall ATS.  They have consistently been over valued for the past two years.  I believe it is the ESPN effect with Wyoming’s QB Josh Allen.   He will be the only player on the field most casual fans will know because of ESPN hype, and therefore it will affect the casual bettor.

Hawaii did not do well against a great QB in Rosen at UCLA, but Allen does not have the weapons that Rosen had at his disposal.   Allen has the ability to be great, but he has not shown it thus far this season against quality opponents.

Hawaii (+7)

 

Idaho @ South Alabama (-4) Sat. Sept 23rd 1:00pm ESPN3

For all the positives that USA does ATS out of conference, it does not rollover to conference play.  The Jaguars were 1-6-1 ATS in Sun Belt games for the 2016 season.  This was partially due to their win against Mississippi State which over valued them for the beginning of the conference schedule.

Also, South Alabama is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games when they are favored at home, including a loss ATS to Idaho last year.  The Jags did win the overall game 52-45, which reinforces the idea of them being over valued in 2016.

Idaho did the exact opposite last year in conference play, going 6-1-1, capped off by a 61-50 win against Colorado State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.   This lead to much preseason hype that the Vandals have not lived up to so far this season.

I believe this is when we see Idaho take off and South Alabama go back to the depths of the SunBelt.

Idaho (+4)

 

Fresh Parlay

Hawaii (+7) with the Over (58).  The over bet by itself might be worth playing as well.

 

If you have a game you would like me to look at next week just send me a tweet @statistically.  If I find it interesting I will add it to my weekly picks.

 

 

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