Get’em While They’re Hot: Week 9 Picks

No Ric Flair .gif this week.  Going 2-2 last week feels more like a loss than a win, and of course if you weren’t getting even money it was.  This puts my yearly total to 21-8-1 and I have not had a losing week to date, which is pretty Kool.

 

 

This Weeks Hot Picks

 

South Bama @ GA State(-1) Thurs Oct 26th 6:30pm ESPNU

This will be a great #FunBelt game on national TV.  South Alabama is all too familiar with the midweek magic of the Sun Belt Conference, upsetting their rival Troy two weeks ago on ESPNU.

I think this will be a great game, and it looks like Vegas believes so as well with the spread this tight.  Both QB’s have proven they can put up big numbers, and if either can we should be in for a treat.

Georgia State is towards the top of the FBS in penalty yards (in a good way), 3rd down conversions, completion percentage and Red Zone Defense.  What will hurt them in this game is the fact they are towards the bottom of FBS in INT’s, Turnovers and Red Zone Offense.

The Jaguars don’t give the ball away and have a knack for creating turnovers.  They are towards the top in the nation in Turn over margin, scoring defense, and not turning the ball over.  South Alabama gives up a lot of yards through the air, which is a major factor I took into consideration for this pick.

I think Jag’s QB Dallas Davis is rolling after the 317 pass yards against ULM, and I think we see him put up another 300+ in this game.

South Bama (+1)

 

App State @ UMASS (+4) Sat Oct 28th 2:30pm No TV

I started to lean this out of conference G5 showdown towards UMASS.  I wanted to pick the Minutemen, they are coming off a win, they have a great offensive passing attack, and they aren’t as bad as their record indicates.

UMASS feels like too much of an emotional pick that lacked cold hard facts.  It looks as though the Minutemen have a great defense against the air.  In reality opponents haven’t had to throw much because they have already ran up the score on the ground.  This pops out when they are 91st in the nation in run defense.

Their passing attack is ranked extremely high nationally, but they have had to throw the ball around to try and get back in almost all of these games.

App State should be able to soften the defense with the run and if need be Tyler Lamb should be able to dominate through the air.  App has a great turnover margin and a decent rushing offense, which might be all that is needed to get the victory and cover the spread.

App State (-4)

 

Eastern Mich @ NIU (-7) Thurs Oct 26th 6:00pm CBSSP

NIU is coming in at 5-2 overall and a three game conference win streak.  This puts the Huskies 3-0 in the MAC and tied for first in the West Division.  Eastern Michigan, on the flip side, comes in at 2-5 overall with a 5 game losing streak, with three of those losses being in conference.  This puts EMU at the bottom of the West Division of the MAC at 0-3 in conference.

Although EMU has had a sluggish first half of the season overall, it hasn’t been against the spread.  They are 5-2 ATS and have yet to lose a game by more than a TD, including a close one last week to Western Michigan in OT.   Bettors are undervaluing the Eagles overall this year, and it’s hard to blame them with that W-L record.

NIU has the same record ATS as they do overall at 5-2.  They are 1-2 in conference ATS and I expect them to win this game, but I also expect for EMU to keep it tight.  If the Eagles don’t play sloppy on offense and manage to get the run game going we could see an upset.

I have picked EMU correctly 3 times to date and I love an upset on Thursday night.

EMU (+7) 

 

 

 

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