Get’em While They’re Hot: Week 11 Picks

Takes from last week

It feels good not to lose.  So good in fact we deserve another Ric Flair .gif.  We went 2-0-1 last week, putting us at 24-10-2 on the season. I’m still in shock that Georgia State had to come back for the push.  The other games went pretty much as planned.  Idaho was a little shocker for sticking around so well with Troy and easily covering the points and that Wyoming game was a blast to watch.  What a beautiful stadium in Laramie.

This Weeks Hot Picks

 

Fresno State @ Hawaii (+9.5) Sat Nov 11th 10:00pm

I believe we have caught an undervalued Fresno and an overvalued Hawaii.  There is extreme overvaluing of Hawaii at home.  I can only explain it happening because every sports commentator mentions the long flights to Aloha stadium.  It just isn’t there.  Hawaii is 2-17 ATS in their last 20 home games.  That’s 2 wins ATS at home since October 25 2014.

This year Fresno has been 3-0-1 ATS on the road, as well as 6-2-1 ATS overall.  Hawaii is just giving up too many points this year.  Currently they rank 108th in the nation at 34.1 points a game, where Fresno is 14th in the nation giving up  18 points a game.   Neither of these teams wow on offense, both rank towards the bottom of the FBS in points scored per game.

I think Fresno bounces back from their loss at Boise and their rough showing against a horrible BYU.

Fresno State (-9.5)

 

AState @ South Alabama (+11.5) Sat Nov 11th 4:00pm ESPN3

Arkansas State has had South Alabama’s number, going 5-0 overall and 4-1 ATS since the Jaguars joined the Sun Belt in 2012.   The Red Wolves have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games they were favored on the road, while the Jags have gone 4-6 ATS when they are home underdogs.   Overall the Jags have gone 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games while the Red Wolves have gone 5-5 ATS in their last 10.

Astate has been a solid second half team, closing out strong every conference foe to date.  On Average the Red Wolves have scored 24.5 points in the second half for conference games.  On the flip side South Alabama has scored 9.2 points on average in their conference second halves, going without a single second half having 2 touchdowns.

I think this game is close at halftime, either way we should see plenty of fireworks on the Red Wolves sideline in the second half.  I need to warn you I am a Red Wolves homer.

Astate (-11.5)

 

EMU @ Central Michigan (+2) Wed Nov 8th 7:00pm ESPNU

Eastern Michigan finally got that elusive win against a struggling Ball State last week.   More than any team in the nation they deserved it.  The six previous losses in a row where all by a touchdown or less with two going into over time.  This has to be a prime reason why the spread is so tight for this Mid Week MACtion.

EMU is currently 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.   CMU is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 and 3-7ATS at home. What I found more interesting with CMU is that the line went with the overall W/L for 9 of their last 10 games.  For instance, EMU is picked to win because they are -2 therefore they win the spread as well.

Statistically CMU is stout on passing offense, but towards the bottom in rushing defense.   The Chippewas give up 27.1 points on average, and rank towards the bottom of the nation in Turnovers.

EMU gives up a nice 20.1 per game, which puts them 2nd in conference.  The Eagles rank 20th in the nation in passing offense, while bottom of the nation in rushing offense.   The Eagles have come around the last few games on the ground and should be able to put up plenty of yards in this match up.

I think EMU goes up early through the air, CMU creeps back in it, but the Eagles put them away in the 4th quarter to secure their 11th straight win ATS on the road.

EMU (-2)

 

Bonus content

UCONN @ UCF (-38.5) Sat. Nov 11th 11:00am ESPNU

I’m not counting this towards a pick, but wanted a reason to use this meme.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UCONN (+38.5)

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