Army Black Knights at North Texas Mean Green-Preview, TV, Weather, Betting and More

Army Black Knights(8-2) at North Texas Mean Green(7-3)

  • Start Time: 6:30 PM EST
  • Location: Apogee Stadium, Denton, TX
  • TV: beIN Sports
  • Weather: 59 at kickoff with a 0% chance of rain
  • Line: North Texas -2.5
  • O/U: 57.5
  • FPI: Army 61.8%

Army just wrapped up its undefeated home season with a win against ACC opponent Duke. Is Duke the top of the top? No, not by any means, but it’s a Power 5 team nonetheless.

Going undefeated at home is something an Army team hasn’t done since 1996(which is also the last time they won the CiC).

Watching Monken turn this team from a 2-10 team two years ago, to what they are now is incredible and a joy to see, college football is better when all three Service Academies are good.

The Black Knights don’t want a pat on the back and for you to say “good job”, not yet. They still have three games left and they want to go 3-0 in those games. But North Texas isn’t an easy team to beat and knows Army really well.

This will be the third time the two have faced off since last season, North Texas blew Army out at home 35-18, then Army won a thriller in overtime in the Heart of Dallas Bowl 38-31.

Led by Ahmad Bradshaw, the Black Knights offense is humming, averaging nearly 30 points per game and just under 400 rushing yards.

The triple option is running to maximum efficiency, but the Mean Green have a humming offense of their own, average 37 points a game.

QB Mason Fine and RB Jeffery Wilson lead this Mean Green team, the two have combined for 36 touchdowns on the season. These two are the heart and soul of this offense and this team.

Fine as good as a passer as he is, also can turn the ball over. In ten games, Fine has thrown nine interceptions. Clearly, 22 is greater than nine but if you play a team with good DB’s like Army, this could present a problem for you.

Army’s defense is one of the strengths of the team, they only give up around 18 points a game. They also have stepped up in every close game, expect the Tulane game. The defense has shown time in time again that they can be trusted to keep a game in check and keep them close or keep their lead.

In past seasons(not last year) the offense would have to try and win shootouts which is awful for triple option teams like Army.

North Texas is one of those teams who their defense isn’t all that good and relies on their offense to outscore people. The Mean Green defense gives up almost as many points as their offense scores, 33.6 and 412.9 yards per game.

If Army’s defense comes to play and can stop the Mean Green just a couple times, UNT’s defense isn’t going to be able to stop the Black Knights on offense.

Prediction

While researching the game, I found it a little puzzling as to why the spread and FPI were so different.

Normally when there is a spread as close as this the FPI is really close to 50/50, so when I saw 61.8% Army is was lost considering UNT was a 2.5 point favorite at home. When I asked our resident betting expert, Robert Shurley why this was, he said:

The line is so different is that one is the analytics and the other is bettors, and a lot has to do with bettors putting money down on “feelings” and not “facts”

Betting aside, I think this will be a great and entertaining game. These two teams match-up well, as shown by their last meeting. This is another one that could come down to the wire, it feels like Army has had a lot of those this season.

Expect Army to pound the ball inside with Woolfolk, Davidson, Holt, and Slomka early to maybe, just maybe, this is going to sound insane, but maybe set up a play action pass to take the top off the defense. North Texas’ weakness is in the passing game, giving up 241.4 yards through the air a game.

The Mean Green’s offense could prove to be deadly. With the combination of Fine and Wilson, the Black Knights will have their hands full trying to slow them down.

Also, Army has never won 11 games in a season and in order to reach this accomplishment they have to win out. I don’t think being the first Army team to win 11 games is on the top of players minds, but I’m sure the want to make history is there. Going 11-2, winning the CiC, winning a bowl game, and closing the season on a nine-game winning streak would be pretty cool if you ask me.

Don’t be shocked if we have an overtime game, again.

Army 35-North Texas 28

 

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