Look. Hawai’i is fun. That’s not a bad thing. It’s actually really good. But, can we calm down about the whole Hawai’i is a now a top G5 team?
I’m not saying that they won’t finish with a 8-4 record. I’m not saying that that they don’t have a great offense and a fun QB in Cole McDonald. I’m just saying that they shouldn’t be finishing 28th in the r/cfb poll.
We should enjoy that they are a high powered offense that we can watch when all the other games are done for the week and we should probably go to bed. We should embrace the fact that they’re offense is much improved and Hawai’i football isn’t a bottom of the barrel team.
But lets not overreact to their three wins. Here are their wins listed by FPI, S&P+, Sagarin, and margin of victory:
Colorado State – 110/111/102 – 9 points
Navy – 87/100/72 – 18 points
Rice – 128/126/156 – 14 points
The Navy win is the most impressive and its a good win by Hawai’i. But the other two aren’t really top 25 caliber victories. I personally am very interested to see what happens when Hawai’i plays an offense ranked better than 85th in the country. Right now, against the worst offenses in the country, they are giving up about 35 points a game.
The shootouts are fun and Hawai’i will have a lot of them. Playing in the West Division of the Mountain West opens the door to some pretty bad defenses. Hawai’i even dodges Boise State in cross-divisional play. But that doesn’t make them a great team. Just a very fun team.
This hype probably isn’t going to end soon either. Here is their upcoming schedule according to FPI: 84, FCS, 123, 88, 73, and 90. That’s not exactly “murderer’s row.” Now, that 88 is Wyoming and they are probably going to climb up a bit before that game.
I kinda expect Hawai’i to be 9-0 or 8-1 after that run. That’s awesome! Great for a team that finished 3-9 last year, especially. If they are 9-0 at that time then they should be ranked. It’s impressive to go 9-0 even if the schedule isn’t great. But 3-0 isn’t that impressive.
So, no, I don’t think Hawai’i is just a lucky flash in the pan but they honestly don’t compare to the other teams in the bidding for the Top 25.
That said, I hope that they keep winning and keep running that great run and shoot offense. Its fun to watch and I want Hawai’i to show me that they deserve the press that they are getting now.