Can UCF Make the College Football Playoff?

Short answer: probably not.

But, I will break down all the possible scenarios that UCF could find themselves in.

The Knights find themselves ranked 12th by the College Football Committee. I personally have them at 7th but clearly, the committee doesn’t share the same sentiment. That being said, 12th is better than I expected; I was preparing myself for UCF to be 16th.

The only question left is: just how much chaos will break out?

Scenario One: UCF sitting comfortably in the 7-10 range

What needs to happen: UCF wins out, Florida and the WVU/Texas winner lose again, Kentucky beats UGA.

Is this the outcome UCF/G5 fans would want? No. But it’s the one most likely to happen.

If the Knights are in the 7-10 range, they will likely face the loser of the SEC championship game (assuming they aren’t in the CFP) or another SEC team (UF, maybe Kentucky) in a New Years Six Bowl.

Likelihood:  60%

Scenario Two: UCF in the top 5-6

What needs to happen: UCF wins out, Florida and the WVU/Texas winner lose again, Kentucky beats UGA, Washington State and Oklahoma each lose again before the conference title game and Notre Dame loses at least once.

This is the one I see happening. I don’t think it’s outlandish to see Wazzu and Oklahoma drop another one, and I think the Irish’s luck will run out this week at Northwestern and maybe against Syracuse.

UCF being one of the “first two out” would still be huge for the program. Obviously, they want to be in the College Football Playoff, but I think they’d be happy with a top-five ranking.

Likelihood: 30%

Scenario Three: UCF is going to the College Football Playoff

What needs to happen: UCF wins out, Florida and the WVU/Texas winner lose again, Kentucky beats UGA then loses out, Washington State and Oklahoma each lose again before the conference title game and Notre Dame loses at least once, LSU loses out, nobody in the Big 12, Pac 12 or ACC wins out and Clemson loses the ACC title game.

We can dream, right?

This would send the college football universe into a frenzy, could you imagine? It would be like March Madness but with football.

If all these things take place there is no way that UCF can be kept out of the CFP.

We are all hoping for this scenario to happen, but don’t get your hopes up.

Likelihood: 10%

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